|Dew Point:||27.0°F (-2.8°C)|
|Sea Level Pressure:||29.96" (1014.4 mb)|
Mostly ClearLow: 30
Partly Sunny then Slight Chance Rain ShowersHigh: 54 Low: 30
SunnyHigh: 48 Low: 26
SunnyHigh: 53 Low: 30
SunnyHigh: 54 Low: 34
Mostly clear, with a low around 30. West northwest wind around 5 mph.
A slight chance of rain showers after 3pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 54. West northwest wind 6 to 12 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
A slight chance of rain showers before 7pm. Partly cloudy, with a low around 30. West northwest wind around 14 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Sunny, with a high near 48. Northwest wind 7 to 10 mph.
Mostly clear, with a low around 26. West northwest wind 1 to 6 mph.
Sunny, with a high near 53.
Mostly clear, with a low around 30.
Sunny, with a high near 54.
Mostly clear, with a low around 34.
... A fast-moving and relatively dry cold front will cross the area later today. In the front's wake, another round of dry high pressure will overspread the region and persist into the middle of next week.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 230 am EST: Water vapor satellite imagery shows a broad, amplifying trough digging into the Ohio Valley early this morning. Mid and high level moisture ahead of the system will increase in earnest across the region through the day. Despite the increased cloud cover, warming thicknesses and improving southwesterly flow ahead of a surface lee trough near the mountains will permit maximum temperatures to rebound to above climo values this afternoon. Meanwhile, lead vorticity lobes with the upper trough will cross the region late this morning, with better vorticity along with improved upper level divergence arriving this afternoon just ahead of an associated surface cold front. Vertical profiles limit any deeper moisture in the sub 850 mb layer to the higher terrain. Will thus confine any slight chances of showers to the immediate Tennessee border this afternoon.
Anticipate deep layer drying in the northwest flow tonight, however, low-level moisture may linger along the spine of the NC mountains overnight. In addition, breezy conditions will likely develop over the high terrain, but with gusts remaining sub-advisory during the peak of the cold advection overnight. The passing surface cold front will settle southeast of the region overnight. Nighttime mixing will likely keep minimum temperatures just above climo despite the frontal passage.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 250 AM EST Saturday: the short term fcst picks up at 12z on Sunday with broad upper trofing centered over New England, and steep upper ridging over the Western CONUS. By early Monday, heights will begin to recover as the trof axis lifts northeast and ridging spreads farther east. By early Tues, the ridge will flatten as it moves over the fcst area. At the sfc, another round of dry high pressure will overspread the region on Sunday and linger into the extended period. As for the sensible fcst, the period should be dry. High temps will cool back down to near climatology on Sunday and Monday, with lows about a category below normal for late November.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 235 AM EST Saturday: the extended fcst picks up at 12z on Tuesday with flat upper ridging over the southeast and another northern stream upper trof rapidly approaching the Great Lakes. At the same time, a southern stream H5 low will close off over the SW CONUS and Southern Rockies. This low will gradually lift northward and open back up as a shortwave as it moves eastward. The long-range models now have the feature approaching the fcst area by early Thurs, with the 12z ECMWF being quite a bit faster and farther to the north than the GFS and CMC. Regardless, as the shortwave moves offshore on Thurs, another fast-moving upper trof will dig down across the Great Lakes and move over our area by early Fri. This trof is expected to move well east of the region by early Sat with heights recovering in its wake. At the sfc, broad high pressure will be in place over the region to start the period. The center of the high is expected to drift off the Atlantic Coast by late Tues/early Wed, as a fast-moving cold front moves across New England but remains well to our north. On Wed and Thurs, the models try to develop a weak low over the Southern Plains and then lift it northeast towards the Great Lakes and Ohio River Valley. As this occurs, the low deepens and a cold front intensifies and approaches the fcst area late Thurs. The front moves quickly thru the CWFA early Fri and is expected to be moving offshore by Fri afternoon. In its wake, strong and dry high pressure spreads back over the region.