|Dew Point:||°F (°C)|
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SunnyHigh: 83 Low: 59
Patchy Fog then SunnyHigh: 82 Low: 62
Mostly Sunny then Scattered Showers And ThunderstormsHigh: 80 Low: 64
Slight Chance Rain Showers then Chance Showers And ThunderstormsHigh: 82 Low: 64
Chance Showers And ThunderstormsHigh: 79 Low: 61
Sunny, with a high near 83. West northwest wind around 2 mph.
Mostly clear, with a low around 59. Northeast wind 0 to 3 mph.
Patchy fog between 7am and 8am. Sunny, with a high near 82. West northwest wind 0 to 5 mph.
Partly cloudy, with a low around 62. Southeast wind 0 to 3 mph.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms after 2pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 80. South wind 0 to 3 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall amounts less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms before 2am. Partly cloudy, with a low around 64. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall amounts less than a tenth of an inch possible.
A slight chance of rain showers between 8am and 2pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 82. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 64. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
A slight chance of rain showers before 8am, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 79. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
... High pressure will build across the forecast area and bring relatively dry conditions through Sunday. Then a warming and moistening airmass will build in, bringing hot and humid afternoons Monday through Wednesday. A cold front is expected to pass through Wednesday night and usher in cooler and drier air that will last into next weekend.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 200 PM EDT Saturday: Very quiet through the near-term with a post-frontal dry airmass in place. Upper trough in place down the Appalachians will continue to push east today as it damps, which will allow the subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic to push west, merging again with the Southern U.S. upper ridge. The front that passed through yesterday will remain stalled to our south, but with the ridge axis building in overhead the front will wash out somewhat, and moisture will lift back north as surface winds swing around to the southeast during the day on Sunday. In the meantime, seasonal temperatures out there this afternoon, with lows tonight pretty much at climo.
As we move into Sunday, the heat will slowly increase as will the humidity. Low level winds out of the S/SE will result in some orographic upglide, and at 700mb, though fairly weak, as a very minor shortwave passes over the area. This should result in a fairly typical diurnal pattern to convection over the mountains, and should be enough for isolated thunderstorms to develop. Storms probably won't move much but without enough time for recovery in deep-layer moisture, heavy rain concerns are minimized. Other concern will be the increasing heat with thicknesses increasing aloft as well as subsidence from the building ridge, with highs creeping toward the mid 90s south of the I-85 corridor. Luckily again without much time for low level moisture recovery, heat indices will only be a degree or two above the actual temps, but for residents and visitors across the area, still a good idea to be aware of heat precautions.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 2:30 PM EDT Sunday: The western extension of the Bermuda High Pressure System will hold sway through Monday. H5 heights actually are on the increase into early in the new work week. Meanwhile, the old frontal boundary washes out and is essentially replaced by an establishing SE flow from the surface up to H5 MB.
In the very short term, isolated ridge top convection Sunday evening will end with the loss of heating and instability. We will carry a slight chance for an hour or two after sundown Sunday evening.
The broad SE flow has made a couple of notable shifts in the forecast for Monday. With dewpoints on their way back up, we have noticed an increase in moisture both from the surface to H85 and also the surface to H5. The first area to discuss will be the NC mountains and perhaps far NE Georgia. The suite of models are allowing clouds to develop, along with a fair amount of instability, which should lead to either scattered or widely scattered showers and thunderstorms midday Monday forward. Terrain impacts will also be in play.
The second area is the moisture advancing north from the midlands on Monday. We will edge up the cloud forecast in our upstate south piedmont counties and also have a small chance of afternoon showers or thunderstorms. The remainder of the area will have some fair weather cumulus, with perhaps some higher level clouds on top.
I still suspect there will be some "give and take" with respect to a sharp cloud/precipitation line nearby on Monday. Bottom line, minor details could change the direction of the forecast.
Any convection Monday should wane, although we re-introduced another chance of showers in our south mountains of NC toward daybreak Tuesday. This is in response to the flow turning southwest, which will initiate upglide on that side of the terrain.
Moving forward, the overall pattern will be in flux. On Tuesday there should be a greater coverage of showers and thunderstorms, still in the chance category, but increasing in areal coverage. A prefrontal trough, ahead of the primary approaching cold front, may lend itself for a thunderstorm focus Tuesday as well.
Temperatures will continue to remain elevated, while dewpoints start another surge higher. As a result heat indices will be flirting in the middle and upper 90s in parts of NE Georgia (outside the mountains), upstate South Carolina and the western piedmont of North Carolina, both Monday afternoon and Tuesday afternoon.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of noon Saturday: Consensus of GFS and EC continues to indicate an amplified upper pattern developing in the middle of the week, reaching its greatest magnitude around Thursday. As the component trough digs over the East, a fairly strong cold front will push into our region late Wednesday. At the present time it looks fairly likely this front will focus deep convective development, given that it will be moving into a hot and humid airmass associated with a subtropical ridge. With 20-25 kt of 0-6 km shear we can't rule out persistent linear storm structures, though dry air aloft appears to be lacking, which may mitigate the severe wx threat to some degree.
Given the amplified pattern, unsurprisingly a large sfc high builds into the area following the front. While some guidance depicts precip returning Thursday afternoon while the front is still on our southern fringe, most indications are for subsidence to have taken hold by that time, and therefore depict suppressed convection. By Friday the high should have moved onto the Eastern Seaboard, resulting in a cool wedge setup which persists into the weekend, with deep convection looking even less likely. However, easterly flow still warrants a low PoP in the high terrain. Max temps will be 3-5 degrees below normal Thursday and into the weekend on account of the wedge, with dewpoints in the upper 50s to lower 60s making for particularly pleasant conditions.