|Dew Point:||°F (°C)|
|Sea Level Pressure:||" ( mb)|
Lo 65 °F
Lo 64 °F
Lo 53 °F
Lo 53 °F
Lo 56 °F
Scattered showers, mainly before 1am. Patchy fog after 2am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a low around 65. Calm wind. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.
A chance of showers and thunderstorms before noon, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm between noon and 2pm, then showers and thunderstorms after 2pm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. Patchy fog before 8am. High near 76. Calm wind becoming west around 6 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.
Showers and thunderstorms, mainly before midnight. Some of the storms could produce heavy rain. Low around 64. Northwest wind 7 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 73. Northwest wind 13 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 28 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Partly cloudy, with a low around 53. Northwest wind 8 to 11 mph.
Mostly sunny, with a high near 76.
Mostly clear, with a low around 53.
Sunny, with a high near 78.
Mostly clear, with a low around 56.
Friday through Friday night. Cooler and drier air will arrive across the western Carolinas and northeast Georgia through the weekend and linger through the early part of next week. More typical summertime conditions will return about the middle of next week.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 1015 PM: Trimmed PoPs back a bit over the next few hrs, with HRRR and NAMNest showing just some very isolated activity firing on remnant outflows left behind by the current storms. I continue to advertise an increase from north to south beginning after midnight as the convergence zone and associated showers encroach from the north. Temp trends were largely on track so far; the guidance blend chosen by the previous shift accounted for the cirrus well. I did make some minor adjustments to values later tonight as the newest hourly guidance is overall a bit warmer. This is reflected in new min temps.
The 18z NAM bucked the trend of late and showed less of a stabilizing effect Friday due to the morning cirrus and possibly light stratiform precip. 00z NAM continues this trend. Our confidence has increased that at least the NC Piedmont, where model consensus has been highest for significant instability, will be at risk for severe wx. At least the GFS sweeps a cold pool from upstream storms into our forecast area such that it depicts virtually no sbCAPE across most zones by 18z. While this is plausible, it`s by no means a given, and it does create a considerable amount of uncertainty in tomorrow`s forecast. The uptick in instability seen in the most recent NAMs is decreasing the uncertainty for severe wx in our east, in that it lends confidence to other solutions still showing high SBCAPE values there. However it increases the uncertainty in how far west the advertised SPC Slight Risk should be extended when Day 2 becomes Day 1 tonight.
At any rate, the potential for abundant buoyancy is a bit disconcerting considering the anomalously strong mid/upper level flow, with attendant deep layer forcing and low level & deep layer shear of 25-35 kts, as one would typically expect a very active severe weather day with such ingredients in late July. The combination of upper support, along with lee side/pre-frontal trough and perhaps outflow boundary(s) associated with the morning convection should support scattered to numerous showers and storms across the area by afternoon. The potential for a few significant severe storms still cannot be ruled out. Tomorrow`s highs should be a couple of degrees (if not more) below climo under expected widespread mid/high clouds.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 225 PM EDT Thursday: The best upper-level forcing rounding the slowly deepening eastern trough will likely cross our piedmont Friday evening before swinging rapidly east to the coast overnight. An attendant sharp cold front will also cross the region through the nighttime hours. PoPs will thus remain fairly high during the evening hours before drier air starts arriving from the northwest overnight post-fropa. However, the best severe convective threat should have passed east of the area by evening - unless any strong redevelopment occurs along the immediate frontal zone. Showers may linger along the northern mountains in moist low level upslope flow well into Saturday morning.
A closed, upper-level low pressure system will then migrate from the central Appalachians to the Virginia Tidewater region Saturday through Saturday night. The surface cold front will depart southeast of the region and drier air will work in. The main exception is that a trailing vorticity lobe rounding the upper low will swing down across the western Carolinas Saturday night, reinforcing moisture in the 850 to 700 mb layer. This will lead to some return cloudiness, but probably no associated showers.
Deep layer northerly flow will continue Sunday through Sunday night on the back side of the deep eastern coastal trough. Periods of mid level moisture could permit slightly higher cloud cover at times, but with no attendant showers expected. Anticipate maximum temperatures about 1 to 2 categories below climo by Sunday afternoon.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 225 PM EDT Thursday: Reinforcing shortwave energy arriving from the upper Midwest will keep a mean trough axis positioned over the eastern U.S. Monday through Wednesday. Mainly dry surface high pressure will sprawl over to the north of the region through this same period. The airmass will slowly modify, with isolated convective coverage returning to the southeast mountains late Monday and then more typical diurnal mountain ridge top coverage Tuesday through Thursday. Some modest height recovery is expected on Thursday with max temperatures finally returning to near seasonal normals.