|Dew Point:||°F (°C)|
|Sea Level Pressure:||" ( mb)|
Hi 78 °F
Hi 76 °F
Hi 72 °F
Hi 73 °F
Hi 70 °F
Isolated showers between noon and 2pm, then a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 78. West wind around 11 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Showers and thunderstorms likely, then showers and possibly a thunderstorm after 1am. Some of the storms could produce heavy rain. Low around 66. South wind 9 to 11 mph becoming west after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
Showers and thunderstorms likely before 2pm, then a chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 76. West wind 11 to 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Partly cloudy, with a low around 58. Northwest wind 5 to 9 mph becoming light west after midnight.
Mostly sunny, with a high near 72. Northwest wind 7 to 11 mph.
Mostly clear, with a low around 54.
Mostly sunny, with a high near 73.
Partly cloudy, with a low around 53.
Mostly sunny, with a high near 70.
mountains, with a potential convective line moving into western zones sometime after 00z. Surface-based instability will be limited, but should still see CAPEs slowly increase to between 500-750ish J/kg ahead of the front. Deep-layer shear will move in as well with a 50+kt 850mb LLJ ahead of Cindy`s absorbed remnants, with resulting 0-6km bulk shear generally 30-40kt, but could creep up toward 50kt. So with this, despite the overall lack of widespread instability, cannot rule out isolated severe convection, and as with any tropical remnants, mini supercells and perhaps a brief tornado cannot be ruled out. SPC`s Marginal Risk looks to cover this well, but the problem is that anything that does occur would be nocturnal.
Other concern is rainfall, but it really looks like the mountains will break up quite a bit of the widespread heavy rain. Day 1 QPF isn`t all that impressive, with around 1.5" in extreme western Graham County (highest in the CWA)...and though 1hr FFG is 1-3", that 1.5" in 24h was enough to warrant a Slight Risk of excessive rain. For now...just doesn`t seem like enough concern of *widespread* heavy rain for a Flash Flood Watch. No doubt training convective cells may lead to an isolated threat especially in the mountains, and with soils fairly wet (especially after this morning`s rain) it probably wouldn`t take much. But just not enough confidence for a Watch at this time.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 305 AM EDT Friday: the short-term fcst picks up at 12z on Saturday with longwave upper trofing digging down across the Great Lakes and steep upper ridging over the West and East Coasts. The upper lvl pattern is not expected to change much thru the period with the trof axis remaining just to our NW and the ridge amplifying to our west. At the sfc, a robust-looking cold front will be moving thru the CWFA by early Sat, with widespread showers and thunderstorms likely as it does. The models are hesitant to move the front south of the CWFA on Saturday and keep the bndy just to our southeast thru Sunday. By the end of the period early Monday, strengthening Canadian high pressure to our NW finally pushes the bndy offshore. Precipitation chances will steadily diminish Sat night thru early Sun with the rest of Sunday expected to be dry and a bit cooler.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 255 AM EDT Friday: the extended fcst picks up at 12z on Monday with a broad longwave upper trough centered over the Great Lakes to our NW. A reinforcing upper shortwave digs southward on the backside of the trof and moves over the fcst area on Tuesday. As the shortwave lifts NE, heights begin to rebound as upper ridging begins to build to our south. At the sfc, cooler and drier should be in place over the CWFA by early Monday with broad high pressure centered to our NW and a frontal bndy to our SE. Over the next few days, the high will slide SE and over the fcst and eventually move off the Atlantic Coast by the end of the period late Thursday/early Friday. As for the sensible wx, the period should be mostly dry with only some slight chance PoPs towards the end of the period when we get back under more moist southerly flow. Temps and dewpts will remain below normal for late June with values warming back to near normal by day 7.