|Dew Point:||°F (°C)|
|Sea Level Pressure:||" ( mb)|
Chance Showers And Thunderstorms then Patchy FogLow: 57
Patchy Fog then SunnyHigh: 78 Low: 55
SunnyHigh: 77 Low: 55
SunnyHigh: 78 Low: 56
Mostly SunnyHigh: 78 Low: 58
A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 8pm, then patchy fog. Partly cloudy, with a low around 57. South southeast wind around 2 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.
Patchy fog before 11am. Sunny, with a high near 78. East northeast wind 1 to 5 mph.
Mostly clear, with a low around 55. East southeast wind around 5 mph.
Sunny, with a high near 77. East wind around 5 mph.
Mostly clear, with a low around 55. East northeast wind 1 to 5 mph.
Sunny, with a high near 78.
Partly cloudy, with a low around 56.
Mostly sunny, with a high near 78.
Mostly clear, with a low around 58.
... Drier and stronger high pressure will develop over the weekend and persist through at least the middle of next week. In the meantime, Tropical Cyclones Jose and Maria will remain off the east coast.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 220 PM: A somewhat blocked pattern persists over most of the eastern CONUS; an anticyclone extends from Texas to the Great Lakes, but is undercut by a weak upper low over the Southeast. At the sfc, high pressure centered to our north continues to drive a light northeasterly flow into the CWFA. Warm and humid sfc conditions combined with modest lapse rates aloft will result in aftn instability. The easterly flow should kick off scattered showers/storms over the mountain ridges, with more isolated cells developing over mainly the SC/GA zones, where dewpoints are a bit higher and subsidence slightly weaker. Dry profiles and weak shear are similar to those seen the past couple of days, when a couple of storms managed to produce damaging winds and severe hail. Slightly lesser coverage is fcst today, though the isolated severe threat still exists.
The pattern progresses a tiny bit tonight, as the high starts to push east into the NE CONUS, and the low retrogrades slightly toward the central Gulf Coast. Vort lobes on the periphery of the low may bring some patches of high clouds through the area, but skies should be mostly clear. Crossover temps are expected to be reached in some areas of the Piedmont and so patchy fog is expected; the mountain valleys should fog easily particularly where rain falls nearby. Min temps will be similar to the previous morning.
The increased influence of the ridge should allow for deeper mixing and slightly drier sfc conditions that accordingly will reduce instability. PoPs hence are lower and limited to the NC mountains and far NE GA. Max temps will be largely unchanged: in the upper 80s across the Piedmont, and lower 80s in the mountain valleys.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 150 PM Friday: Upper ridging builds south into the area from the Great Lakes and mid-Atlantic on Sunday and remains through Monday although it does weaken. Surface high pressure follows a similar pattern while Maria moves north well off the GA and SC coast. The result will be a dry northeasterly flow keeping stable air over the area. Despite the NE flow, thickness levels remain high keeping highs around 5 degrees above normal each day. Fair skies and the drier air mass will allow temps to fall overnight, but lows also remain around 5 degrees above normal each morning.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 215 PM EDT Friday: the extended fcst picks up at 00z on Tuesday with steep upper ridging in place across the Eastern CONUS and deep trofing over the west. Over the next few days, the upper trof will move eastward and begin to suppress the ridge as the remnants of Tropical Cyclone Maria remain off the Carolina Coast. By the end of the period next Friday, the upper trof axis is expected to be over the region or just to our west. At the sfc, broad high pressure will persist over the region thru most of the period. As previously mentioned, TC Maria is expected to remain just off the East Coast and not have a significant impact on the fcst area. A fairly robust looking cold front will approach the CWFA from the NW by early Thurs and likely move thru the CWFA by the end of the period on Fri. As for the sensible wx, no major changes were made to the fcst with mostly dry conditions expected. Temps will remain well above climatology thru most of the period with a noticeable cool down by day 7.