|Dew Point:||°F (°C)|
|Sea Level Pressure:||" ( mb)|
Hi 80 °F
Hi 72 °F
Hi 68 °F
Hi 64 °F
Hi 70 °F
A chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 3pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 80. South wind around 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms before 11pm. Patchy fog after 4am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a low around 62. South wind around 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
A slight chance of showers, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 11am. Patchy fog before 8am. Otherwise, partly sunny, with a high near 72. South wind 6 to 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms, then a chance of showers after midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 60. Southeast wind 10 to 14 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Showers and possibly a thunderstorm, mainly before 5pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 5pm. Some of the storms could produce gusty winds. High near 68. South wind 11 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 8pm. Partly cloudy, with a low around 47. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Mostly sunny, with a high near 64.
Partly cloudy, with a low around 46.
Partly sunny, with a high near 70.
ern Carolinas and northeast Georgia through the remainder of the weekend until a strong cold front approaches from the west Sunday night. The cold front will move across our region on Monday. After the front passes, weak high pressure will move across the southeast for Tuesday and Wednesday. However, the atmosphere will reload with another slow moving system bringing wet weather to the area late next week.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 10am EDT Saturday: Fog and low stratus is mostly clearing, and ceilings will continue to improve as BL mixes out later this morning. High pressure and good insolation with partly cloudy skies will lead to a substantial warming today with highs in the upper 80s in Piedmont areas. Warming will also allow CAPE values to reach levels over 2000 j/kg this afternoon. Some capping and a lack of forcing/focus will hold back any widespread convection. Persistent southerly flow will maintain BL dewpoints and will give some lift over the mountains where the best chance of a convective shower will exist. Minimal vertical wind shear will make any thunderstorms pulse in nature. CAMS generally break-out some scattered to widely scattered convection, mostly over the mountains, but some in Piedmont areas where the cap could give way if there is sufficient heating. Given healthy CAPE levels, there may be a window for some large hail or microburst winds around peak heating from 4pm to 8pm today.
Isolated shower triggering could continue in upslope areas tonight, but with profiles quickly stabilizing with the loss of diurnal heating. Another mild night is expected, with fog and low stratus possible depending on the thickness of any invading cirrus.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 245 AM EDT Saturday: Strong sub-trop high pressure will remain the dominant synoptic feature Sun. The models are in decent agreement with the amount and location of llvl moist flux...which shud be enuf to create stcu persisting thru the morning and early afternoon most locales. The main challenge Sun will be when and if a strong subs inversion is overcome by thermal heating. Mech lift will aide in sct tstm development across the higher terrain...but it looks like spotty and later day precip/thunder non/mtns. Not expecting much severe potential as muCAPE is rather low and tapped into rather late day. There is a nice vertical delta theta/e sig showing up in the cross sections...but then again mixing shud remain too shallow to tap into it. Tricky max temps if the llvl stcu remains trapped...but for now have values cooler than the expected highs today...basically L80s non/mtns and U70s mtn valleys.
The main event for the short term will be the incoming cold front and highly dynamic upper support thru the day Mon. Pre-frontal forcing will begin Sun night and an increase in showery activity is anticipated across the mtns. Model soundings are rather impressive with the strengthening shear. By 15z...a 50+ kt llvl jet will develop ahead of the front. Instability is a little suspect...but higher than the past few runs. High effective shear shud combine with muCAPE values around 1500 J/kg by the afternoon and will expect organized multi-cell tstms to be maintained as the front crosses east of the FA by 00z or so. A decent airmass mix behind the front and sfc td/s drop into 40s Mon night. With opaque cloud cover most of the day...max temps shud only reach arnd normal even with sustained sw/ly flow.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 315 AM EDT Saturday: Weak srn stream high pressure will cross the region Tue and Wed. This will maintain rather nice conds as td/s remain in the 40s Tue and only moderating into the 50s Wed. Along with max temps right around or just a few degrees above normal...two rather pleasant spring days look to be in store. Min RH values will come close to fire wx concerns...and with localized deeper mixing may reach 25 percent or less. However...fuel moisture levels are running moderately high and shud/nt dry too much due to the widespread precip expected Mon.
The next low/frontal system will develop out of the srn plains Wed night and track right toward the FA. The models are still having placement differences wrt to the sfc low and thus the amount/coverage of precip into the area...so will keep pops in the mid chance range for now. This system looks to be deeply moist and will therefore have issues with instability...also deep layered shear will be moderate at best. So not expecting too much besides general thunder and decent rainfall rates...but it could become more favorable for stg/svr storms as the details are figured out and agreed upon by the models over the next couple days.