|Dew Point:||°F (°C)|
|Sea Level Pressure:||" ( mb)|
Hi 69 °F
Hi 68 °F
Hi 67 °F
Hi 58 °F
Hi 60 °F
Scattered showers before 2pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms between 2pm and 5pm, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 5pm. Patchy fog before 9am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a high near 69. Calm wind becoming southwest 5 to 7 mph in the morning. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Showers and thunderstorms likely. Cloudy, with a low around 51. Light south wind. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
A chance of showers and thunderstorms, then showers likely after 2pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 68. Southwest wind 3 to 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
A chance of showers, mainly between 8pm and 10pm. Partly cloudy, with a low around 48. Northwest wind around 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Mostly sunny, with a high near 67. Northwest wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the morning.
Partly cloudy, with a low around 47.
A chance of showers after 3pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 58. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Showers likely, mainly after 8pm. Cloudy, with a low around 47. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
Showers likely. Cloudy, with a high near 60. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
and this persistent fetch of Gulf moisture across the southeastern states will yield continued morning clouds and lingering isolated to scattered showers for our region. This flow regime will continue across the southeast through the day. The combination of temperatures warming quickly through the 70s, despite the mostly cloudy conditions, and dewpoints solidly in the 50s will likely produce SBCAPE values in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range this afternoon. Narrow lobes of vorticity lifting east ahead of the main trough this afternoon will provide a triggering mechanism for deep convection. Although thunderstorm coverage will be in the solid scattered range, several of the storms could be strong to severe as CAPE improves in the minus 10 to minus 30 C hail growth zone. Relatively modest Spring freezing levels should permit 55 dBZ cores reaching the lower 20kft range this afternoon and early evening to yield some marginally large hail and briefly gusty winds. Fortunately, 850 mb flow and associated deep layer shear will be less than observed on Sunday, so cells should not persist as long and a bit less storm organization is indicated. Will mention the severe potential in the HWO.
The deeper forcing will occur with the trough as it crosses the southern Appalachians overnight with better upper jet divergence and deep layer Q vector convergence indicated. However, instability should be waning a bit overnight and low level flow will start veering, so this may limit the strong to severe potential somewhat for the early morning hours. The real question mark will be how well the more robust convection from the upstream Slight to Enhanced severe thunderstorm risk areas is able to survive as it approaches the mountains. All in all, expect a mild and increasingly wet night.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 225 AM EDT Monday: An ulvl s/w will continue to cross the area Tue and drag a broad cold front east throughout the day. The atmos will remain unsettled during this time and isol/sct tstms are probable early on thru the afternoon. The main focusing area for stronger storms will be east of the mtns as pre-frontal lift coincides with destabilizing warm sector by 21z. The op models have varying ideas with the placement of convec and the degree of instability...but the ern zones with better sfc td pooling associated with increased sfc convg shud be the favored area for deep convection...possibly producing a few svr storms. This activity will wane rather quickly aft fropa arnd 00z with little if any showery activity lingering thru the overnight period.
Heights actually begin to rise quickly during the afternoon Tue and by 12z Wed a deep layered ridge axis will be situated just west of the FA. A strong subs inversion will engulf the area and prevent deep convec activity from developing thru the day. There may be some -shra late and overnight across the nrn zones as a moist wedge begins to build in. Max temps will reach 10-12 degrees above normal in good downslope flow...however td/s will be about 10 degrees cooler than Tue`s values. Thus...no good chance will be had to break the h7 cap in a non/triggered environ. Min temps will remain 8-10 degrees above normal both Tue and Wed nights.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 305 AM EDT Monday: A strong ulvl ridge will cross the ern CONUS early Thu thru Fri morning. This will force a cP sfc high off the mid-Atl coast which will ridge south across the FA. This ridge will bring some Glakes moisture which will combine with advecting llvl Atl moisture. Isent lift and increasing precip coverage will thereby strengthen and hold a wedge in during this time. This will make for a tricky temp forecast Thu and also the amount of thunder activity possibly developing across the wedge bndry to the south and west. For now...have tstms developing across the far sw/rn zones and max temps ranging from the u50s nrn piedmont to m70s over the far srn zones. This could change over the next few fcst packages.
Meanwhile...a strong low pressure system will develop across the srn Plains early Thu and advance toward the OH Valley by Fri morning. This feature will bring yet another frontal system to the area Fri. The models agree well with breaking down the sfc wedge arnd 12z Fri leaving plenty of time for the atmos to destabilize in a highly dynamic environ....possibly producing stg/svr storms along a retreating TMB. This scenario has a good amount of uncertainty however as the speed of the cold front or upper s/w could change and the inherent complexities and uncertainty involved with frontal/wedge interactions. The front looks to cross east of the area late Fri and a dry airmass shud build in over the weekend. Max temps Fri could be tricky as well...but for now have highs reaching near normal levels. Over the weekend...highs will likely increase to about 5 degrees above normal in good insol within a drying column.